国情咨文：大选后对财务团队的影响.pdf

1、State of the Union:Post-Election Implications for Finance teams2024 AICPA&CIMA Future of Finance SummitDecember 12,2024Mark PetersonExecutive Vice-President,AdvocacyTrump Administration19827210218 VOTES FOR MAJORITYP RES ENT A TI ON CENT E R 20 24|AS OF 11/8/24,9:29 AM BASED ON AP DATANOT CALLEDREPU

2、BLICANDEMOCRATResults Show a Red Shift Across the U.S.Source:The New York Times,November 18,2024Source:The New York Times,November 6,2024,as of 4amPresident Trump performance by countyAppeared to improve on election night among many types of counties,including ones that had supported him in past ele

3、ctions as well as ones that have historically leaned DemocraticIncumbency is a Liability EverywhereIncumbents Losing Around the World Post-PandemicDemocrats lost Presidency&SenateGoverning LDP suffered its 2nd worst result in history,losing lower houseANC lost parliamentary majority for 1st time sin

4、ce apartheid endedModi reelected but lost outright majority in parliament for 1st time in a decadeRuling Tories ousted from UK government after 14 yearsRuling conservatives landslide loss in parliament to liberal oppositionMacrons centrist alliance failed to secure a majorityDPP held Presidency but

5、legislative Yuan control flipped to KuomintangSource:GallupTrumps Path to Enacting PoliciesSource:Your Guide to Trumps Day-One Agenda From Taxes to Tariffs119th House:3rd Single Digit Margin in a Row119th Congress An Even Closer HouseJanuary 3,2025:219 Republicans 215 DemocratsJanuary 20,2025:217 Re

6、publicans 215 DemocratsVacancies not filled until April at earliestA tie in the House fails.217-215 means no room for error for the majority.Bottom line:For the first 100 days of the Trump Administration,House Republicans will need to maintain perfect party disciplineWAORCANVIDWYMTUTCONMAZTXLAAROKKS