金融 行业概览、纽约银行业财务趋势及风险仪表盘.pdf

1、0CONFIDENTIALFINANCIAL INDUSTRY OVERVIEWJeff MarsicoPresident,The Kafafian Group,I1TABLE OF CONTENTSTABLE OF CONTENTSNEW YORK BANKERS ASSOCIATIONSECTION TOPIC PAGEI FINANCIAL INDUSTRY OVERVIEW 2II PEER DASHBOARD 262TABLE OF CONTENTSSECTION IFINANCIAL INDUSTRY OVERVIEW3NOTABLE THEMES FOR 2025WHAT WIL

2、L SUCCESSFUL INSTITUTIONS DO?03.04.TECHNOLOGY START DOING DIVERSIFY REVENUES PROFITABLY02.01.NET INTEREST MARGIN 800 LB GORILLAFINANCIAL SERVICES INDUSTRY EMERGING TRENDSSTRATEGIC ALIGNMENT4LENDING OR DEPOSIT GATHERING-WHICH IS HARDER?PRE-TAX PROFIT OF ALL LOAN&INVESTMENT SECURITIES VS DEPOSITS AND

3、BORROWINGSNET INTEREST MARGINSource:Peer Group Comparison Detail Product Profitability Trend,The Kafafian Group,Inc.Fed tightening leading up to financial crisis had the same result:deposit spreads on par with asset spreads,without the credit risk.Zero rate environment led to over confidence in supe

4、rior profits generated by loans.During“normalized”rate scenario(ie.1Q19)there was a small profit gap between assets&liabilities.5“NORMAL RATE ENVIRONMENT”VERSUS TODAYIS NOW THE NEW NORM?NET INTEREST MARGINSource:S&P Capital IQ Pro;FDIC-insured commercial and savings banksAsset Size2Q252019Y$50B3.093

5、.30-0.21%Change (19 vs.2Q25)Median Net Interest Margin(%)6NET INTEREST MARGINBANK RATESCOMPARED TO MARKET RATESSource:S&P Capital IQ Pro,SEC&Yahoo Finance.For charts,all FDIC-insured commercial and savings banks with total assets between$1B-$10B as of Q2 2025%Customer expectations:Loans tend to pric

6、e more off longer rates such as 5-year treasury,where deposit expectations price off Fed Funds rateThe delta between what customers could receive in MMMF and bank deposits grew too large.7INERTIA IS INCREASINGLY UNRELIABLEHOW RISING RATES IMPACTED AVERAGE BALANCES PER ACCOUNTNET INTEREST MARGINSourc