全球非转基因作物的供需情况 Maxime Montserret邦吉.pdf

1、Global Soy Outlook GMO/Non GMOOctober 2024Global soy dynamicsMajor origins soybean productionElevated prices Jan 2020 onwards and soy/corn a ratio favorable to soya last 12 monthsSource:USDA 1,90 2,10 2,30 2,50 2,70 2,90 3,10 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800Sep-20Sep-21Sep-22Sep-23Sep-24Soy/corn ratioct

2、/buCME-soybean continuous contract valueCME soybeanCME soy/corn ratio9711512211611312512914013116215316949464425485127430029630331434519/2020/2121/2222/2323/2424/25Major origin soybean production(Mmt,USDA)United StatesBrazilArgentina4US soyoil demand driving crush expansionBiomass-based diesel is el

3、evating soyoil demand against a steady food consumptionSource:USDA,American Soybean Association40455055606570US soybean demand(Mmt,USDA)CrushExports3344456666666776669,09,710,410,110,611,312,112,312,8US soyoil domestic consumption(Mmt,USDA)IndustrialFoodTotal2,5 2,6 2,7 2,7 3,0 3,5 2,4 2,8 2,8 3,0 3

4、,4 202120222023202420252026US crush capacities&biodiesel mandate(soyoil equivalent,Mgy)Crush capacityBiomass-based diesel MandateChina bean demand increase slowing down post ASF5Recent import demand supported by government reserve expansionSource:USDA5259607078839394839910090105112109556165697582889

5、0859295909699103-3-214254-2750913610/1111/1212/1313/1414/1515/1616/1717/1818/1919/2020/2121/2222/2323/2424/25China soybean imports and crush(Mmt,USDA)ImportsCrushDiff(Imports-Crush)Crush CAGR:+0.8%p.a.50 53 54 56 56 58 59 59 61 104 107 111 114 115 117 113 119 125 154 159 164 169 172 175 172 178 186

6、16/1717/1818/1919/2020/2121/2222/2323/2424/25World excluding China soymeal consumption(Mmt,USDA)Major originsDestinations excluding ChinaWorld soymeal consumption:24/25 to confirm recovery6CAGR Pre covid Origins:+3.5%Destinations:+3.2%Covid years Origins:+1.8%Destinations:-0.2%Post Covid Origins:+1.