欧洲对非转基因作物的需求和趋势 Daniele Marcomin意大利 Agribusiness di Covolato srl.pdf

1、European demand and trends for Non-GMO cropsDaniele MarcominAgriholism srlConsultant of Agribusiness Covolato srl Italy+393316415258 The demand The demand in Europe in Europe is is stablestable notnot growinggrowingRecentRecent trends of nontrends of non-gmgmsoyasoya feed demandfeed demand 2020/2021

2、:contraction of the demand by-10%in DACH and Scandinavian regions,-30%to-70%in France,Italy,Benelux,Croatia,Czech Republic 2022/2023:stabilization of the demand to 2.6 mln tons(roughly 10%of EU total demand)From the stat,excluded the use of toasted beansFuture trendsFuture trends Non-GM replaced(inc

3、orporate)by deforestation-free,sustainable and regional hence certified regional material such as Donau Soja/Europe Soja can be more and more relevant Food price inflation:like it happened in 2021/2022 the high value added products can be affected by the spending power of the customers Size of the l

4、ivestock population(avian flue,swine flue,EU regulations)Relative price of soybean meal vs other proteins(switching opportunities)RSM already maxed-out Availability and price premium*AvailabilityAvailability and price premium*and price premium*WhyWhy SBS are the driver?SBS are the driver?The EU non-

5、gm soya crushers are located in the main soya growingregions,or can easily import from them The sbm consumers should understand that in order to read the market,they have to monitor the soybean crop development in EU,and this is what we highlight in the DS Market Report on a monthlybasis.IT IS VERY

6、DIFFICULT TO FORECAST THE NON-GM PREMIUM EVOLUTION BECAUSE IT IS AFFECTED BY:-WORLD GM MARKET-INTERNAL EU SUPPLY OF BEANS-WORLD NON-GM MARKET(BRAZIL,India-feeding the North EU countries and France-)-NEW LEGISLATIONS(EUDR)-LOGISTIC DISTRUPTIONS(DANUBE,RHINE,WAR,ACCESS TO THE PORTS