生成AI的宏观经济后果：区域视角.pdf

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1、Macroeconomic Consequences of AI:A Sectoral and Regional Perspective 12th IMF Statistical Forum:Measuring the Implications of AI on the EconomyWashington,DCNovember 20-21,2024Marek Rozkrut,Partner,EU&CESA Chief Economist,Head of EY EMEIA Economists UnitStanisaw Bartha,Piotr Dybka,Oliwia Komada,Julia

2、 Kotowska,Maciej opusiski,Mateusz Maksymiuk,Dominika Sikora-Kruszka,Maciej Stefaski Page 2Our study:Investigates macroeconomic consequences as well as regional and sectoral disparities of AI.Extensive set of covered topicsCovers AIs potential impact over the next decade on labor market,investment,pr

3、oductivity,GDP,inflation,interest rates,and international competitiveness.Context:Context:Rapid advancement of AI fuels high expectations,with most research US-focused.Our contribution:Our contribution:Extensive set of covered topics and wide geographical coverage.Wide geographical coverageMain focu

4、s on the EMEA region:Western Europe,Southern Europe,CEE,MENA,and SSA.Global analysis includes:US&Canada,Latin America,ASEAN,South Asia,and the rest of Europe and Central Asia.Page 3Labour market:AI-driven transformation.AI may automate 5%of tasks in high-income regions by 2033.Following Acemoglus(20

5、24)framework,we estimate the proportion of tasks likely to be automated by AI over the next decade,differentiated by region.Factors considered:occupational exposure to AIregional labor market structure,and economic benefits of automation(proxied by relative wage levels in PPP)Our approach:Our approa

6、ch:Task automation and augmentation depend on technical feasibility and economic benefits.AI implementation potential in 2033,%of tasks in wage bill%of tasks in wage billResults:Results:Western Europe may automate 5%of tasks in the next decade.Other EMEA regions will see slower AI adoption due to wa