欧睿国际：2019Q3全球经济预测（英文版）(33页).pdf

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1、Global Economic Forecasts Q3 2019 Not to be distributed without permission. The data included in this document is accurate according to Passport, Euromonitor Internationals market research database, at time of forecast closing date: August 10th 2019 2019 Euromonitor International1 introduction Eurom

2、onitor International Analytics offers precise answers to vital business questions in an increasingly fast-paced and uncertain world. Our Macro Model provides regularly updated forecasts and “what-if” scenarios for core macroeconomic variables, including gdp, growth and unemployment. Its global scope

3、 ensures our macro forecasts and scenarios reflect the economically inter-connected world in which we live. The Global Economic Forecasts report focuses on quarterly macro changes for the worlds key economies and what these mean to our view of the likely, optimistic and pessimistic scenarios for the

4、 global economy. Ultimately, we help businesses stay ahead of risks and opportunities as they emerge on a macroeconomic basis. The first half of 2019 has seen downgrades to the global outlook especially in emerging and developing economies with global gdp growth expected to be 3.1% in 2019, reboundi

5、ng to 3.3% annually in 20202021. 2019 Euromonitor International2 The overwhelming contribution to global growth will continue to come from developing and emerging economies, with their output expected to rise by 4.3% in 2019, improving to 4.7% growth annually from 20202021. Advanced economies growth

6、 is expected to be 1.7% in 2019, declining to 1.5% annually in 20202021. Overall global downside risks have increased, with rising trade tensions and financial markets volatility since May 2019. Source: Euromonitor International Macro Model 2019 Euromonitor International3 GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECASTS Q