平衡创新与消费者对鸡肉的需求.pdf

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1、1The DeSoto Savannah,GAWednesday,July 30,2025 8:30ABrian Earnest|Lead Economist,Animal Protein2Balancing innovation with consumer demand for chickenEvolution has come full circle3Key thoughts4The U.S.animal protein industry seeks to optimize efficiency while considering consumer preferencesThroughou

2、t the last two decades this has brought more chicken to the table in new formatsChallenges abound,but the outlook is a balance of“more of the same”while embracing innovationHow breeder focus has changed over time5“You cant outrun yield”(until you dont have chickens to put on shackles)1960s1970s1980s

3、1990s2000s2010sPresent1985Number of broiler genetics companies1960-70sChick/egg production per laying hen1980sFeed conversion ratio(FCR)1990-2000sFocus shifts to large bird format and breast yield2820252SlaughterBreeder and broiler production farms6Source:The Poultry SiteEliteGreatgrandparentGrandpa

4、rentParent farmsBroiler farmsHHatcheriesHBreeder companyBroiler production companyHHHPrimary breeder farmsEfficiency gains in broiler production growth7Source:USDA,LMIC,CoBankBroiler harvest(billion head)Production(billion pounds,ready to cook basis)384042444648508.68.78.88.999.19.29.39.420152016201

5、7201820192020202120222023202410YR CAGR(2014-2024)Slaughter:+780 million head(9.2%)Avg.wt.:+0.53 lbs.(8.9%)Production:+8.8 billion lbs.(23%)and enhanced by low corn prices8Source:USDA,ERS,CoBank$0$2$4$6$8-2%0%2%4%6%20112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024YoY change in slaughterAverage

6、 corn price(per bushel)Corn values$4/bu.Broiler slaughter averaged 1.5-2+%consistently2013-2019Retreating corn prices again supporting expansion U.S.marketing channels have shifted to further processed9Marketing of U.S.chicken by categorySource:National Chicken Council,USDA0%20%40%60%80%100%19621967