未来生物燃料原料和市场动态.pdf

1、The future biofuels feedstocks and key market dynamics 2025 Argus Media group.All rights reserved.1A RG US O IL A ND FUT UR E FUE LS FO RUM 20 2 5SpeakersModeratorTom SearlePrincipal,Analytics&Consulting ArgusJohn Houghton BrownSenior Editor,Europe and Asia Biofuels ArgusJosefine AhlstromSVP,Global

2、Biofuels ArgusJade DelafrayeGlobal Editorial Manager,Agriculture ArgusArgus Oil and Future Fuels Forum 2025RED III determines feedstock classification§or regulation,providing the definitions for aviation and maritime sectorsSource:Argus Consulting2RED IIIReFuelEUAviationFuelEUMaritimeBiofuels de

3、mand for feedstocks in 2025*Road and aviation transport sectors Annex IX A(oils):1.6mn t Annex IX A(other):3.9mn t(vegetable oil eq.or ethanol eq.)Annex IX B:8.7mn t Crop(vegetable oils):9.1mn t Crop(sugars,corn and wheat):5mn t(ethanol eq.)Wastes IXA,IXBCropsIntermediate cropsArgus Oil and Future F

4、uels Forum 2025050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000TonnesSource:China customs dataChina UCO exports to EuropeChina UCO exports to North AmericaUCO export rebalance;European market sets price tempo37008009001,0001,1001,2001,300UCO fob ARAUCO fob China bulkUCO fob Strait of Malacca

5、 bulk European UCO demand back as EC sets antidumping duties(ADD)on Chinese biofuels US demand uncertain due to potential 45Z changesEuropean&Asia UCO($/t)Chinese UCO exports to North America&Europe European demand sets price levels for Asian UCO exports“Tug of war”price levels Chinese suppliers&int

6、ernational marketADD announcedEuropeAsiaArgus Oil and Future Fuels Forum 2025UCO demand as HVO/SAF quadruples to 20354010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,000000tGlobal Hydrotreating Demand OutlookHVOSAFx 4Strong pull for UCO with HVO/SAF demand expected to quadrupleHedging as biorefinery p