当前和 2050 年海洋燃料脱碳.pdf

1、Decarbonising marine fuels,today and to 2050 2025 Argus Media group.All rights reserved.1A RG US O IL A ND FUT UR E FUE LS FO RUM 20 2 5SpeakersModeratorHussein Al-KhalisyAssociate Editor Alternative Marine Fuels ArgusNatasha Fielding Editorial Manager Gen Fuels ArgusCatherine CaulfieldVP,Business D

2、evelopment ArgusJack MerriottSenior Manager ConsultingArgus Argus Oil and Future Fuels Forum 2025Decarbonisation of the 300mn t/yr bunker market by numbers 233%x10$450/tx511%2%Argus Oil and Future Fuels Forum 2025Regulation forces change today:fuel switching and trading compliance 380%compliant ship

3、100%compliant ship120%compliant shipYesNoYesNot compliantCompliantExcess complianceEU regulation targets rise out to 2030(%)Pooling:for flexibility and compliance trading Fuel EU Maritime is the gamechanger forcing lifecycle GHG reduction today Biodiesel is the only option unless you have access to

4、LNG2024202520262030EU ETS4070100100FuelEU226Argus Oil and Future Fuels Forum 202560070080090010001100B30(Advanced Fame&VLSFO)ARA dobB24(Ucome&VLSFO)Singapore dobB30(Ucome&VLSFO)ARA dob Argus Marine Fuels&Argus Marine Fuels OutlookEU compliance being met with Chinese biodiesel via Singapore 4B24 Sing

5、apore:most competitive to 2027$/t“Bio-premium”to VLSFO is volatile 8090100110120130B24 Ucome fob China premium to VLSFO fobSingapore($/t)*Prices inclusive of EU ETSArgus Oil and Future Fuels Forum 2025FuelEU cost of compliance:275/tCO2e vs.645/tCO2e in penalty5100150200250300350400FuelEU Ucome-MGO a

6、batementFuelEU Ucome-VLSFO abatement/tCO2ePenalties/t CO2eMGO 645VLSFO 6381t Ucome13.23gCO2e/MJ Changing cost of generating and selling compliance Pricing compliance using Ucome to abate Shipowners&Charterers can value compliance to decide on:TradingBankingPenalty1t VLSFO91.74 gCO2e/MJ FuelEU in eff