László SzabóREKK 区域能源政策研究中心主任.pdf

1、THE IMPACT OF PLANNED GASTHE IMPACT OF PLANNED GAS-BASED CAPACITY EXPANSION IN BASED CAPACITY EXPANSION IN THE POWER SECTOR OF THE CEE THE POWER SECTOR OF THE CEE AND SEE COUNTRIESAND SEE COUNTRIES-AND TRANSITION TO AND TRANSITION TO HYDROGENHYDROGENLszl Szab,Andrs Mezsi,Adrienn Selei,Alfa DialloREK

2、KBudapest Hydrogen Summit 2025Research questions In Central and Eastern Europe significant gas power plant capacity expansion is planned in the period of 2025 and 2040.(7-37 GW)This raises several questions:I.Are the planned gas power plants needed from a flexibility point of view?II.How can zero GH

3、G emissions in the power sector by 2040 be reached with these new capacities?III.What would be the impact of switching the gas plants to hydrogen?IV.What is the minimum gas capacity required in the system?To answer these questions a model-based analysis was carried out by REKK European Power Market

4、Model(EPMM)of REKK Time horizon:2030,2035,20402 23 3ARE THE PLANNED GAS POWER PLANTS NEEDED FROM A FLEXIBILITY POINT OF VIEW?Scenario set-up I.Three main scenarios analysed with sensitivities based on the amount of newly built gas power plantsLow:Each country finishes only those gas power plants,tha

5、t are already in construction(physical construction works already started)Medium:The scenario considers those new gas power plants that based on the current progress are likely to be built in the future.High:The most ambitious plans of the countries based on their NECP or as the sum of individual pr

6、oject plans(whichever is higher)In these reference scenarios no hydrogen-based PP operation or CCS is consideredIn 2030 7.0 GW of new capacities are assumed in the low scenario,17.3 GW in the medium scenario,and 32.5 GW in the high scenarioFor 2040,these figures are 7.0;17.3 GW and 37.3 GW in the th