乘风破浪：在充满不确定性的世界中释放机遇.pdf

1、Navigating turbulent Navigating turbulent waters:waters:Unlocking opportunities Unlocking opportunities in an uncertain worldin an uncertain worldDr.Tracy Davids&Dr Kandas CloeteBureau for Food and Agricultural Policy(BFAP)The 5th CGA Citrus Summit,Gqeberha11-13 March 2025Citrus still a major contri

2、butor to SA EconomyCitrus still a major contributor to SA Economy Faced with a highly dynamic environment in recent yearsFaced with a highly dynamic environment in recent yearsDeciduous fruit;10%Citrus;7%Other horticulture;12%Field Crops;29%Livestock42%Citrus is 5th biggest contributor to Ag.GPVBigg

3、est agri exporter1.8 Bn USD in 202412%of total agri&foodEmploys approx.140 000 people15%of agricultureExpansionary cycle has slowed some rebalancing of supply&demand in recent yearsSH production down 2%in 2023SA export volume down 6%in 2024Price+22%from 2022 to 20249.3%2.6%8.6%5.8%0%2%4%6%8%10%20182

4、01920202021202220232024InflationEUWorld-10 20 30 40 502018201920202021202220232024Rand/carton to EuropeExpansionary cycle has slowedBUDWOOD SALESSpending power has improvedINFLATIONLogistics environment stabilisingFREIGHT RATESExternal environment has improved since 2022External environment has impr

5、oved since 2022Although some bigger risks were resolved,new ones arise Although some bigger risks were resolved,new ones arise -2 4 6 8201820192020202120222023Million budwoods-58%-23%33%-50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400RevenueMarginCostRevenueMarginCostRevenueMarginCostRevenueMarginCostRevenueMarginCo

6、stRevenueMarginCost201920202021202220232024Rand/ha(000)Production&marketing costGross marginProcessingLocalExportsSources:SARS(2025);Source BI(2024)Profitability has improved in 2023&2024 Profitability has improved in 2023&2024 Exceptional volatility in recent years also influenced by exogenous fact