结合战略远见和决策智慧为造纸行业找到经济可行的脱碳途径.pdf

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1、path to zeroTissue World Dsseldorf 2025Dr.Markus Bohlayerpath to zeroCombining strategic foresight and decision intelligence to identify economically feasible decarbonization pathways for the paper industryTissue World 2025Dr.Markus Bohlayer|24.03.2025path to zeroTissue World Dsseldorf 2025Dr.Markus

2、 Bohlayer2Agendapath to zeroI.Problem-Why is decarbonization planning hard?II.Methodology-How can we use mathematical programming to identify economically feasible pathways?III.Results-How digital twins enable us to plan,track and optimize the pathway to net-zeroIV.SummaryStudyDecarbonization of the

3、 paper industryKey technologies,climate strategies and case studies Download studypath to zeroTissue World Dsseldorf 2025Dr.Markus Bohlayer3path to zeroI.Problem-Why is decarbonization planning hard?Transformation planning isa sequential decision problem under uncertaintypath to zeroTissue World Dss

4、eldorf 2025Dr.Markus Bohlayer4path to zeroI.Problem-Why is decarbonization planning hard?Complex systems1.Highly interconnected production and energy systems2.Heterogenous age structure of existing plants3.Large variety of solutions4.Plant specific boundary conditionsDynamic boundary conditions1.Par

5、adigm change on the electricity market2.Increasing fuel and emission cost3.Dynamically evolving regulatory framework12path to zeroTissue World Dsseldorf 2025Dr.Markus Bohlayer5Captures interdependencies within the existing system and potential solutionsFinds optimal investment decisions for current

6、boundary conditionsNeglects changing boundary conditions Neglects future potential solutionspath to zeroII.Methodology state of the art Mathematical programming formalizes the problem,but single period approximations can lead to misinvestments and increased costSingle-period investment modelmininv,c