是时候释放潜在价值了.pdf

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1、Time to Unlock the Potential Value Rod Clough,President-AmericasOctober 8,2024Should we hit the snooze button?Occupancy and ADR in 2025 isnt going to drive much excitementHow Unexciting Are These Forecasts?Source:STR(Historical)HVS(Forecast)65.3%65.3%65.8%66.0%65.9%44.0%57.5%62.6%63.0%62.8%62.8%63.0

2、%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%201520162017201820192020202120222023 2024 f 2025 f 2026 fOccupancyHVS Forecast119.90123.58126.40129.57130.98103.31124.96149.24155.62158.11161.27165.3080.00100.00120.00140.00160.00180.00201520162017201820192020202120222023 2024 f 2025 f 2026 fADRAnd maybe hit it a secon

3、d time?Fed policy has finally changed,but discount rates and cap rate moves wont be drasticDiscount Rates Unlikely To Help MuchWe expect discount rates and exit cap rates to ease down over the next year,but not wildlySource:HVS Broker Survey7.09.011.013.0Discount Rate%Limited-Service/Economy HotelsS

4、elect-Service HotelsFull-Service HotelsLuxury/Upper-Upscale HotelsExit Cap Coming7.5-9Exit Cap Now8 9.5Disc.Rt.Coming9.5-10.5Disc.Rt.Now10.0-11.0On the contrary:time to wake up and unlock value nowMarkets are where they are,but is your GOP margin where it should be?Unlock the Value Through GOP Repos

5、itioningHotels that are operating well under these marks are poised for a reset and unlocking of true value.Extended-Stay50%-55%Limited-Service45%-50%Select-Service40%-45%Full-Service35-40%Consider this scenario:Stagnant at 60%occupancy and$120 ADR$40,000 per key PIP pendingHotel GOP at 35%,best current management can doHotel closes for 23 months for renovations with new managementRe-open at 65%occupancy and$140 ADRNew company achieves 45%GOP with potential for 48%50%Source HVS;Rod Clough,MAI