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电力需求激增:PJM未来的电力需求.pdf

上传人: 五**** 编号:1160957 2026-03-02 19页 3.22MB

1、PJM |PublicAmped Up:PJMs Future Power NeedsWEST VIRGINIA ENERGY SUMMITAsim Z.HaqueSVP,Governmental and Member ServicesPJM InterconnectionNovember 13,2025PJM |PublicPJM as Part of the Eastern Interconnection As of 2/2024 26%of generation in Eastern Interconnection 25%of load in Eastern Interconnectio

2、n 20%of transmission assets in Eastern Interconnection21%of U.S.GDP Produced in PJMKey StatisticsMember companies1,090Millions of people served67+Peak load in megawatts165,563Megawatts of generating capacity180,785Miles of transmission lines88,185Terawatt hours of annual energy770Generation sources1

3、,439Square miles of territory368,906States served13+DCPJM |PublicPJM The OrganizationOperates As A Non-ProfitNo Shareholders or Share PriceFederally Regulated(FERC)Independent BoardMarket MonitorMission-DrivenPJM |PublicGRID RELIABILITYPJMs Primary FocusOperationsGrid operationsSupply/demand balance

4、Transmission monitoringRegional Planning 15-year outlookMarkets Energy Capacity Ancillary servicesPJM |PublicPJM |PublicNERC:Long-Term Reliability Assessment Graphic:NERCPJM |PublicElectricity Demand GrowthPJM |PublicData Center ProliferationPJM |PublicThe summer and winter peak megawatt values refl

5、ect the estimated amount of forecast load to be served by each transmission owner in the noted state/district.Estimated amounts were calculated based on the average share of each transmission owners real-time summer and winter peak load in those areas over the past five years.West Virginia 2025 Load

6、 Forecast ReportPJM |PublicSupply and DemandPJM Region(MW)2025 Supply181,533 2025 Demand(Peak Summer)160,5262040 Demand(Peak Summer)212,000PJM |PublicState Import/Export DynamicsPJM |PublicCapacity Market PricingRTO Price Comparison2025/20262024/2025RTO Price:$269.92/MW-day$29/MW-dayReserve Marginwi

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1. **PJM规模与角色**:覆盖13+州及华盛顿特区,服务6700万人,占美国东部电网26%发电量、25%负荷及20%输电资产,2024年峰值负荷165,563兆瓦,装机容量180,785兆瓦。 2. **供需与增长**:2025年夏季峰值需求预测160,526兆瓦,2040年将增至212,000兆瓦;数据中心扩张是需求增长主因。 3. **容量市场与价格**:2025/2026年容量市场价格269.92美元/兆瓦-日,储备率18.5%;超70%(200吉瓦)新供应通过并网队列推进,其中63吉瓦已获批。 4. **数据中心应对**:建议优化需求预测、调整需求响应规则,并推动州级政策(如成本分配、准入承诺)以缓解 affordability 压力。 5. **关键挑战**:需加快输电/发电项目审批(州级许可至关重要),并改进零售市场机制(如默认服务采购、竞争性购电)。
**PJM未来电力需求** - PJM预计2040年夏季峰值需求将达到多少兆瓦? **数据中心增长影响** - 数据中心扩张如何影响PJM的电力供需平衡? **零售成本分配** - PJM建议如何调整零售成本以缓解数据中心的压力?
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