汇丰HSBC：新式现制茶饮行业研究：增长格局分化；头部品牌优势持续扩大-251216（英文版）（26页）.pdf

1、 Disclosures&Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix,and with the Disclaimer,which forms part of it.Issuer of report:The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited View HSBC Global Investment Research at:https:/ The 22

2、ndedition of the EM Sentiment SurveyClick to viewPushingthe accelerator into2026 Growth diverged in 2025,affirming the consolidation theme identified in our report“Chinas Starbucks for tea drinkers”With the fading of delivery subsidies,we expect industry consolidation to accelerate,led by Mixue and

3、Guming Maintain Buy on Guming,raise TP c7%to HKD36.60;upgrade Mixue to Buy(from Hold),lift TP by 1%to HKD499.70 Growth diverged in 2025.In our report“In search of Chinas Starbucks for tea drinkers”(25 June 2025),we identified two ways to succeed and differentiate in the new-style freshly-made bevera

4、ge industry in China become the cost leader in the low-priced category,or specialize in one product in the mid-priced segment.To us,Mixue is the winner in the first category and Guming in the second.In 2025,growth diverged among key players and Mixue and Guming led the growth,affirming our consolida

5、tion theme.Further industry consolidation in 2026.With the delivery price war starting from April 2025,delivery subsidies on low ticket-size orders boosted the demand for freshly-made beverage by volume.However,the financial performance of the franchisees of different chains varied by the changes in

6、 the delivery mix and net GMV ratio(over gross GMV).After delivery subsidies started to phase out gradually from September 2025,we believe the freshly-made beverage market will further consolidate in 2026,driven by:(1)expansion:unit economics(UE)is the financial fuel behind expansion growth,and we e