万事达卡：2026年全球经济展望报告：适应性经济：关税、技术与转型（英文版）（36页）.pdf

1、Economic Outlook 2026An adaptive economy:tariffs,technology,transformationECONOMIC OUTLOOKmastercard economics instituteDECEMBER 20251ContentsIntroductionThree themes in 2026Regional economic outlooks0120235703911131416AmericasUnited StatesCanadaMexicoBrazilSouthern Cone and Andean economies18192021

2、EuropeUnited KingdomEurozoneNordics and SwitzerlandCentral and Eastern Europe2527293133Asia PacificChinese MainlandASEAN 5South AsiaJapanANZEastern Europe,Middle East,and Africa222324Middle East and North AfricaTurkiye and Cental AsiaSub-Saharan AfricaThe new rules for tradeAI and fiscal tailwindsTh

3、e shift in small businessesIntroductionINTRODUCTION2Global growth:real GDP growth across major economiesNote:Size of each bubble represents contribution to world GDP,PPP*,color of the bubble signifies relative growth per country.Source:Oxford Economics,Mastercard Economics Institute*PPP refers to Pu

4、rchasing Power Parity,a method of converting currencies that equalizes the purchasing power of different currencies by eliminating differences in price levels between countries.Under PPP,GDP is expressed in international dollars.In 2026,the policy changes that grabbed headlines in 2025 will exert th

5、eir force on economies around the world.While deepening global fragmentation presents challenges,increasing AI adoption presents opportunities.Over the next year,the data will unveil how the global economy has adapted to these accelerating forces.The Mastercard Economics Institute(MEI)expects global

6、 real GDP growth to moderate to 3.1%in 2026 from an expected 3.2%in 2025;the global expansion is set to continue,underpinned by technological adaptation and flexible economies.MEI expects moderately stronger growth in the US but a deceleration in the Chinese Mainland and across Latin America with Eu