【国泰期货】Morning Insight: September 26, 2025-250926（8页）.pdf

1、金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 Morning Insight:September 26,2025 Linlin Gao Certification：Z0002332 Yu Chen Wu(Contact)Certification：F03133175 Main Body Commodity Market Insight：Silver:At present,we believe that structural opportunities in precious metals outweigh overall drivers:our clear view is that o

2、n a monthly scale,silver prices will show significantly greater upward elasticity than gold.Recently,cyclical data has not performed poorly,U.S.inflation expectations have rebounded again,and risk assets have also shown strength.In addition,silver leasing rates have been relatively high,ETF holdings

3、 have seen continuous inflows,while LBMA inventories remain low,implying that actual tradable inventory is limited.Tight overseas spot availability gives silver prices added elasticity.With inventories not dragging silver prices,the rate-cut cycle already underway,and the economy showing resilience,

4、silver is naturally more prone to the upside.In SHFE silver,watch resistance near 10,800,while the gold-silver ratio continues correcting downward below 85.Cotton:Expectations of a bumper new crop and listing pressure are weighing on cotton futures.The market generally anticipates higher production

5、this year compared with last year,while ginning mills show little urgency in competing for seed cotton,raising concerns that seed cotton prices may decline.In addition,textile mills operating rates are lower than the same period last year,adding to worries about cotton demand.As a result,with potent

6、ially lower lint costs and uncertain demand prospects,cotton futures may face significant hedging pressure when the new crop enters the market in bulk,leading to a weaker performance.Attention should be paid September September 2 26 6,2025,2025 F Financial Derivativesinancial Derivatives GUOTAI JUNA