【国泰期货】Morning Insight: September 22, 2025-250922（9页）.pdf

1、金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 Morning Insight:September 22,2025 Linlin Gao Certification：Z0002332 Yu Chen Wu(Contact)Certification：F03133175 Main Body Commodity Market Insight：Industrial Silicon:In the short term,the market is trading on expectations of supply-demand improvement.Last Friday,industrial

2、silicon futures rose sharply,mainly driven by funds pricing in higher coal costs and expectations of downstream polysilicon resumption.On the supply-demand side,upstream Northwest factories have delayed their resumption schedules,while downstream polysilicon is also seeing some short-term resumption

3、.The supply-demand balance in September is relatively tight.Compared with before,the supply-demand outlook has improved,and powder single tender prices have also moved higher.In addition,the rise in coking coal futures has provided some support to the market.However,in terms of upside potential,the

4、current reference is the hedging levels during the Southwest dry season.If prices rise above the Southwest dry-season cost,hedging pressure may gradually emerge,which would limit further gains.Therefore,in the short term,fundamentals are expected to improve,the market remains relatively resilient ag

5、ainst declines,and attention should be paid to the volume of registered futures warehouse receipts going forward.Crude Oil:Freight rate surges support interregional spreads,various long allocations held with light positions.On the supply side,global crude oil supply faces multiple disruptions.OPEC+i

6、s gradually exiting the production cut agreement,planning to lift an additional 1.65 million barrels per day of voluntary cuts starting in September September 2222,2025,2025 F Financial Derivativesinancial Derivatives GUOTAI JUNAN FUTURES 金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 October and completing the withdra