【国泰期货】Morning Insight: September 19, 2025-250919（8页）.pdf

1、金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 Morning Insight:September 19,2025 Linlin Gao Certification：Z0002332 Yu Chen Wu(Contact)Certification：F03133175 Main Body Commodity Market Insight：Container Freight Index(Europe Route):10 under pressure;12 and 02 in wide-range fluctuations.For the 2510 contract,during weeks

2、 3941,the quoted rate center may fall to the range of USD 14501500/FEU,equivalent to an SCFIS index of around 10151050 points(30),which basically sets the level for the first two delivery settlement prices of the 2510 contract.HPL-SPOT has announced a USD 200/FEU increase in late October,making week

3、 42 freight rate trends uncertain.Overall,the settlement price of the 2510 contract is highly likely to remain within 1100 points.For the 2512 contract,shipping companies may repeatedly announce rate hikes for NovemberDecember.We believe the seasonal characteristics of the Europe route cannot be ign

4、ored.However,compared with last year,there are two bearish factors for this years December peak season:1.)The relatively late 2026 Spring Festival may delay cargo volume peaks compared with last year;2.)the pressure of oversupply continues to grow year by year,making it highly likely that freight ra

5、te centers will shift lower compared with the first half of the year.Therefore,the 2512 contract should not be overly overestimated,and we recommend treating it with a wide-range fluctuation approach.For the 2602 contract,the 2026 Spring Festival is half a month later than in 2025(January 28,2025 vs

6、.February 17,2026).In past years with later Spring Festivals(e.g.,2010,2015,2018),the February contract was not necessarily at a discount to the December contract.September September 1 19 9,2025,2025 F Financial Derivativesinancial Derivatives GUOTAI JUNAN FUTURES 金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 Strategy