9、李林-湖泊藻类水华的HEA模拟预警（29页）.pdf

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1、湖泊藻类水华的遗传算法模型预测研究第五届中国水环境模型与智能决策研讨会.玉溪.2018.10.25李李 林、林、闪锟、闪锟、宋立荣宋立荣Hongqing Cao,Friedrich Recknagel主主要要内内容容13一、研究背景一、研究背景二二、遗传算法简介遗传算法简介三三、HEA模型用于藻类水华预测的案例模型用于藻类水华预测的案例3藻类水华预测的数据驱动模型方法 人工神经网络(Artificial Neural Network，ANN)(Recknagel,F.,French,M.,Harkonen,P and K.Yabunaka 1997;Maier HR,Dandy GC,Burc

2、h MD,1998;Liu Y,Yao X,1999;Lee JHW,Fernando TMKG,Wong KTM,2004)4杂交演化算法(Hybrid Evolutionary Algorithm,HEA)基于时间序列水质参数的规则设定的水华藻类基于时间序列水质参数的规则设定的水华藻类HEA模拟原理图模拟原理图*Cao,H.,Recknagel,F.,Kim,B.and N.Takamura(2006)研究目的 能否用常规易检测的理化参数来预测湖库的藻能否用常规易检测的理化参数来预测湖库的藻类水华？类水华？HEAHEA模型预测藻类水华的效果如何？模型预测藻类水华的效果如何？与与ANNANN

3、方法相比，方法相比，HEAHEA模型有何优势，能否筛选模型有何优势，能否筛选关键的参数及其阈值？关键的参数及其阈值？滇池位置:云南昆明容量:15亿方平均水深:4 m面积:300 km2流域面积:2920 km2Haigeng Bay1.滇池藻类水华的滇池藻类水华的HEA模拟预测模拟预测Variation of Total Phosphorus includes three stages:TP rose slowly from 1960 to 1990;TP was accelerated from 1991 to 2000;TP was fallen down since 2001.Varia

4、tion of Total Nitrogen includes two stages:Total nitrogen steady rise from 1960 to 2007;TN started to fall since 2008.滇池水质变化滇池水质变化TP TN 滇池外海叶绿素的变化滇池外海叶绿素的变化滇池藻类组成变化（滇池藻类组成变化（2008-2010）phylumgenusspecies滇池藻类滇池藻类HEA模拟的各参数变化范围模拟的各参数变化范围VariablesNameMeanMinMaxInput VariablesWater Temperature oC(WT)18.88

5、.029.5Secci Depth m(SD)26.3570Diss Oxygen mg/L(DO)8.83.216.0pH9.17.210.3Chemical Oxygen Demand mg/L(COD)28.81050Ammonia NH4-N mg/L(NH4-N)0.4802Filt Nitrite NO2-N mg/L(NO2-N)0.3800.5Filt Nitrate NO3-N mg/L(NO3-N)0.5602.1Total Nitrogen mg/L(TN)3.20.813Filt Reac Phosphorus mg/L(PO4-P)0.03200.16Total Ph

6、osphorus mg/L(TP)0.260.031.1Wind Direction(WD)6.7012Wind Speed m/s(WS)2.009.2Output VariablesChlorophyll-a ug/L(Chla)12052300Cyanophyceae mg/L870.03956Chlorophyceae mg/L8.30120Bacillariophyceae mg/L 2.3068Aphanizomenon mg/L10.10563Anabaena mg/L3.90186Microcystis mg/L29.70.02538Historical DataReal-ti