【国泰期货】Morning Insight: September 18, 2025-250918（8页）.pdf

1、金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 Morning Insight:September 18,2025 Linlin Gao Certification：Z0002332 Yu Chen Wu(Contact)Certification：F03133175 Main Body Commodity Market Insight：Gold:This mornings FOMC meeting was held,and the overall outcome was in line with expectations,reiterating what was stressed at

2、 the Jackson Hole meeting:“as downside risks to employment increase,the balance of risks has shifted.”The immediate market reaction to the 2:00 rate decision was fairly optimistic,with gold rising and the dollar and yields falling.However,after Powells press conference ended at 2:30,trading reversed

3、 somewhatgold pulled back while the dollar and yields rebounded.From the perspective of rate-cut expectations for this year,golds earlier move to 3,700 was already pricing in three cuts within the year;this dot plot simply confirmed that,meaning the Fed has effectively“caught up with the curve.”As f

4、or the more critical rate-cut path in 20262027,there was little change.The SEP also indicates a more favorable economic outlook for 2026,with only one rate cut projected.Such a pace suggests that,after this years cuts,long-term yields could theoretically rebound significantly.Powell also officially

5、defined this cut as a“pre-emptive”one.For gold,the impact is relatively limited,but caution is warranted as further upside may be constrained.Copper:The downside for prices appears limited,with the overall trend remaining rangebound.From a macro perspective,the Fed cut rates by 25 bps as expected,wi

6、th mixed hawkish and dovish signals.On the September September 1 18 8,2025,2025 F Financial Derivativesinancial Derivatives GUOTAI JUNAN FUTURES 金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 fundamentals,higher copper prices have dampened domestic downstream demand and end-user consumption,leading to weaker restocking