【国泰期货】Morning Insight: September 17, 2025-250917（9页）.pdf

1、金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 Morning Insight:September 17,2025 Linlin Gao Certification：Z0002332 Yu Chen Wu(Contact)Certification：F03133175 Main Body Commodity Market Insight：Lithium carbonate:Demand and production expectations revised upward,but long-term supply pressure remains a concern.Recently,th

2、e lithium battery sector has performed well in the stock market,lifting futures prices in tandem.Bulls are mainly trading on stronger demand,with leading enterprises revising up their 2026 production guidance.In the short term,demand for lithium batteries from heavy trucks,other power applications,e

3、nergy storage,and 3C electronics is all showing month-on-month growth.September lithium battery output is estimated at 168.4 GWh,up 5%MoM,including LFP at 130.1 GWh(+6%MoM)and ternary batteries at 32.8 GWh(+2%MoM).On the supply side,production has already surpassed levels before the Jianshiawo suspe

4、nsion,with weekly output at 19,963 tons,up 544 tons WoW and higher than Julys average.Moreover,public reports indicate Jianshiawo is accelerating its resumption process.Bears,however,are trading on expectations of looser long-term supply following mining right adjustments.With bulls and bears divide

5、d,volatility is likely to expand further.Stock Index Futures:Strong consolidation pattern.Recently,stock index futures have overall shown a relatively strong consolidation at high levels,failing to extend the unilateral rally seen in August.By comparison,the Hong Kong market and China concept stock

6、indices have displayed stronger trends.Overall,this is mainly due to September September 1 17 7,2025,2025 F Financial Derivativesinancial Derivatives GUOTAI JUNAN FUTURES 金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 the markets full expectation for a“slow bull,”with long positions being relatively restrained;meanwhil