【国泰期货】Morning Insight: September 12, 2025-250912（9页）.pdf

1、金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 Morning Insight:September 12,2025 Linlin Gao Certification：Z0002332 Yu Chen Wu(Contact)Certification：F03133175 Main Body Commodity Market Insight：Fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil:With crude oil prices falling and fundamentals leaning bearish,FU and LU are expected to remai

2、n weak in the short term.Overnight,international crude oil prices dropped sharply,and FU and LU futures followed suit.Beyond crude oils influence,additional bearish factors have emerged in both domestic and international markets.For high-sulfur fuel oil,Middle East exports remain elevated,with weak

3、spot trade differentials reflecting sluggish market activity.Onshore,the earlier replenishment of warehouse receipts has been completed,keeping near-month contracts under pressure,and short-term price recovery appears unlikely.For low-sulfur fuel oil,in addition to Japans ongoing supply recovery,Bra

4、zils exports to the Asia-Pacific region began to rebound in late August.Together with recent European arbitrage cargoes en route,this suggests that Asia-Pacific spot prices will struggle to find upward momentum.Furthermore,the size of the next quota issuance remains a key factor for LUs valuation.If

5、 quota volumes increase significantly year-on-year,against the backdrop of already high inventories in Zhoushan,the resulting supply glut or even oversupply would weigh heavily on LU prices.Given the considerable uncertainty around the timing and scale of new quota allocations,close monitoring is re

6、quired.September September 1 12 2,2025,2025 F Financial Derivativesinancial Derivatives GUOTAI JUNAN FUTURES 金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 Container Freight Index(Europe route):Trading under pressure.From a valuation perspective,the OCT 2510 contracts settlement price samples correspond to cargoes depa