【国泰期货】Morning Insight: September 9, 2025-250909（9页）.pdf

1、金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 Morning Insight:September 9,2025 Linlin Gao Certification：Z0002332 Yu Chen Wu(Contact)Certification：F03133175 Main Body Commodity Market Insight：U.S.Soybeans:Maintain a sideways consolidation pattern On the one hand,reduced U.S.planting area,declining crop condition rating

2、s raising final yield concerns,and stronger biodiesel policy support provide a price floor for U.S.soybeans.On the other hand,Chinese import demand has yet to return to the U.S.market,raising concerns over U.S.soybean export prospects,while Brazils bumper crop further caps upside potential.Looking a

3、head,with the South American planting season approaching,weather could be the decisive factor.Currently,the Nio 3.4 index is below the La Nia threshold.A La Nia event would significantly disrupt weather in Brazil and Argentina,potentially delaying the onset of the rainy season in Brazils central-wes

4、t region before November,thus postponing planting(especially early soybeans).During the South American soybean growing season,it could also lead to flooding in northern Brazil and drought in the south,creating major yield risks that warrant close monitoring.Offset Paper:Oversupply is the industry co

5、nsensus,downward drivers dominate,with attention needed on the risk of speculative rallies at low valuations On the supply side,Chenmings resumption of operations will add short-term supply pressure,while in the medium to long term the industry remains in a phase of continuous capacity expansion.Cap

6、acity scheduled September September 9 9,2025,2025 F Financial Derivativesinancial Derivatives GUOTAI JUNAN FUTURES 金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 to come online in the second half of 2025 and throughout 2026 totals over 2 million tons,while the current industry operating rate is below 50%.Continuous new