【国泰期货】Morning Insight: September 3, 2025-250903（8页）.pdf

1、金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 Morning Insight:September 3,2025 Linlin Gao Certification：Z0002332 Yu Chen Wu(Contact)Certification：F03133175 Main Body Commodity Market Insight：Container Freight Index(Europe route):Yesterday EC surged and then fell back.The main news impact came from MSC announcing blank

2、 sailings scheduled around the National Day holiday in October.After the market opened,shorts carried out concentrated position reductions,with the 2512 and 2602 contracts trading on peak season expectations,showing relatively larger gains.In the afternoon,Maersk opened bookings for week 38 freight,

3、with spot freight rates continuing to weaken,cooling market sentiment.On the fundamentals,average weekly capacity in September remained unchanged at 296,000 TEU/week,down 6%month-on-month,significantly lower than the 14%year-on-year capacity decline in 2024.For October,2 sailings are pending,from Ev

4、ergreen and the PA alliance;blank sailings number 11,with OA/PA/MSC accounting for 5/2/4 respectively.Excluding pending sailings,current weekly capacity stands at 282,000 TEU/week,down 4.6%month-on-month and up 7%year-on-year.In terms of absolute volume,October capacity remains higher than the same

5、period last year,but the growth rate has slowed compared with JulyAugust.Considering that cargo volume growth this year is positive,carriers suspension intensity during the National Day holiday is overall at a neutral level.From the supplydemand perspective,in late August the overall market load fac

6、tor was around 95%.Carriers have generally relaxed restrictions on low-price contract bookings and special offers for large-ticket cargo to improve overall slot utilization.While this move supports short-term September September 3 3,2025,2025 F Financial Derivativesinancial Derivatives GUOTAI JUNAN