【国泰期货】Morning Insight: September 2, 2025-250902（7页）.pdf

1、金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 Morning Insight:September 2,2025 Linlin Gao Certification：Z0002332 Yu Chen Wu(Contact)Certification：F03133175 Main Body Commodity Market Insight：Precious Metals:Gold and silver rose sharply,especially last Friday when both gold and silver broke above previous highs.As of t

2、he latest,COMEX silver reached a high of 41.76 USD/oz,and COMEX gold reached 3,557 USD/oz.Previously,we pointed out that Powells dovish shift on rate cuts at the Jackson Hole meeting“downgrading the importance of inflation,scrapping the 2%average inflation framework,and highlighting the balance of r

3、isks in employment”moved forward the timing of the gold and silver rally,which we had originally expected to begin after inflation peaked in September or October.Recently,PCE data met expectations,which further reduced the extent to which tariffs transmitted into inflation,thereby lifting rate-cut e

4、xpectations for this year.Currently,rate-cut expectations for this year have risen to 75bp.On the news side,the issue of Fed Governor Cook being accused by Trump and asked to resign slightly heightened concerns about the Feds independence.However,in any case,the rate-cut channel has now opened.This

5、Friday will see the release of August non-farm payroll data,and September 18 will be an important FOMC meeting.Before these critical points,volatility in gold and silver is likely to expand,and after expectation-driven trading,a recalibration will follow.In addition,technically,the breakout was the

6、core driver of Fridays rally,and in our weekly report we clearly pointed out that market sentiment is still September September 2 2,2025,2025 F Financial Derivativesinancial Derivatives GUOTAI JUNAN FUTURES 金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 in the early launch stage.Caution is needed against a repeat of th