【国泰期货】Morning Insight: September 1, 2025-250901（9页）.pdf

1、金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 Morning Insight:September 1,2025 Linlin Gao Certification：Z0002332 Yu Chen Wu(Contact)Certification：F03133175 Main Body Commodity Market Insight：Lithium Carbonate:Fell sharply again due to Yongxing Materials safety production license renewal,with the assessment benchmark p

2、rice higher than the nearby-month contract price,down 2,070 yuan/ton week-on-week to+2,650 yuan/ton.We expect lithium carbonate prices to be supported by spot prices in the short term and remain in high-level oscillation,but to correct in the long term.In September,the production halt at Yichun lith

3、ium mines is only now entering the substantive deep-water stage in terms of impact on output.Coupled with previously low overseas import shipments,lithium prices are expected to remain in a high-level oscillation pattern for more than a month.Looking at overseas shipments to China:in August,Australi

4、an mines were flat,Chile was lower than July levels,Mali had no shipments,Zimbabwe increased to previous highs,and Nigeria maintained high shipment volumes.Going forward,as downstream demand growth slows and overseas imported resources gradually arrive at ports,lithium carbonate prices will enter a

5、downward trend.Glass:Short-term still weak.Last week,the September contract saw large-scale short-term short squeeze near the delivery month,driving a brief rebound in the market,but spot market demand was average and failed to drive overall improvement,and prices fell back again in the Friday night

6、 session.September 1,2025September 1,2025 F Financial Derivativesinancial Derivatives GUOTAI JUNAN FUTURES 金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 From a medium-term perspective,the high premium of the January contract remains the core factor restricting market upside.At present,real estate has not shown signifi