【国泰期货】Morning Insight: August 14, 2025-250814（9页）.pdf

1、金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 Morning Insight:August 14,2025 Linlin Gao Certification：Z0002332 Yu Chen Wu(Contact)Certification：F03133175 Main Body Commodity Market Insight：Soybean meal:USDA report is bullish,opening upside potential.The core bullish factor in the August USDA report is the tightening o

2、f the U.S.soybean supply and demand balance sheet:for the old crop year 2024/25,the balance sheet tightened because supply remained unchanged while demand increased(both U.S.soybean exports and domestic crushing were revised up),leading to a reduction in ending stocks.For the new crop year 2025/26,t

3、he balance sheet tightened because the reduction in supply outweighed the reduction in demand,and ending stocks were further lowered.We believe that there is still room for U.S.soybean production to be revised down later,as there is little room for acreage to be revised up but considerable room for

4、yield to be revised down.At present,U.S.trade agreements have made progress,ChinaU.S.economic and trade talks are ongoing,and the export outlook for U.S.soybeans has improved.Going forward,attention should be paid to actual export data as confirmation.If the U.S.soybean balance sheet remains tight,U

5、.S.soybeans will still have upside potential.Through cost-side transmission,the upside potential for domestic soybean meal futures prices will be further opened.Based on this,one can consider a“buy on dips,operate on volatility”strategy and method,while noting that volatility is high and risk contro

6、l is important.August August 1 14 4,2025,2025 F Financial Derivativesinancial Derivatives GUOTAI JUNAN FUTURES 金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 Industrial silicon:Upstream gradually resuming production,market sentiment weakening.From a fundamentals perspective,upstream factories are gradually resuming pro