【国泰期货】Morning Insight: August 4, 2025-250804（8页）.pdf

1、金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 Morning Insight:August 4,2025 Linlin Gao Certification：Z0002332 Yu Chen Wu(Contact)Certification：F03133175 Main Body Commodity Market Insight：Soy Complex:China is expected to face a significant soybean supply-demand gap before the 2026 Spring Festival.Regardless of whether

2、 China imports U.S.soybeans,the cost of imported soybeans is unlikely to drop substantially,which will drive up the prices of soybean-derived products such as soybean meal and soybean oil.This,in turn,will improve crushing margins and likely stimulate crushers to increase soybean purchases to meet d

3、omestic demand.We conducted simulated calculations under two scenariosimporting U.S.soybeans and not importing U.S.soybeansand estimated related product prices under a breakeven(zero profit)assumption.The price range for soybean meal is estimated to be around 3,050 RMB/ton at the low end and about 3

4、,450 RMB/ton at the high end;for soybean oil,the low-end estimate is around 8,150 RMB/ton and the high end is approximately 8,650 RMB/ton.Based on this,buying soybean meal and soybean oil on dips is recommended.A August ugust 4 4,2,2025025 F Financial Derivativesinancial Derivatives GUOTAI JUNAN FUT

5、URES 金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 Chart 1：Market Snapshot Source：iFind,GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Research Open Interest Chart 2:Open Interest of IF Chart 3:Open Interest of IH Source：iFind,GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Research Source：iFind,GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Research Chart 4:Open Interest of IC Chart 5:Open Interes

6、t of IM Source：iFind,GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Research Source：iFind,GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Research CSI 300 Index Futures4147.0-1.68%SSE 50 Index Futures2821.4-1.42%CSI 500 Index Futures6271.2-1.26%CSI 1000 Index Futures6675.6-0.80%30Y T-bond Futures118.4 0.57%10Y T-bond Futures108.3 0.17%5Y T-bond Futures1