【国泰期货】Morning Insight: August 15,2025-250815（8页）.pdf

1、金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 Morning Insight:August 15,2025 Linlin Gao Certification：Z0002332 Yu Chen Wu(Contact)Certification：F03133175 Main Body Commodity Market Insight：Palm Oil:Strong supply and demand at the origin,focus on buying on pullbacks.The high inventory level in Malaysia this year has be

2、en gradually digested by the market since April.Starting from June,relevant price indicators in Indonesia have shown resilience against declines,the IndonesiaMalaysia price spread has remained at a high level,the relative premium of European vegetable oils to global prices bottomed out early,and Eur

3、opean diesel crack spreads have strengthened significantly,injecting new upward momentum into vegetable oils since June.By July,the increase in Malaysian inventories had slowed sharply,and this years inventory peak may have already been reached,while Indonesian inventories have remained at historica

4、lly low levels of 23 million tons.In other words,the bearish impact from palm oil supply recovery was fully priced in during Q2,and there are no new significant bearish fundamentals.When production areas enter the low-production season with extremely low inventories,building long positions at low le

5、vels in palm oil will likely be the main theme for the second half of the year.Going forward,further price upside will require monitoring whether Indias import margins expand,coupled with tightening soybean oil supply and a failure of the expected recovery in Indonesian production.Recently,China has

6、 booked additional shipments;the JanMay bull spread may have opportunities on pullbacks,with participation suggested if it retraces to around 200.August August 1 15 5,2025,2025 F Financial Derivativesinancial Derivatives GUOTAI JUNAN FUTURES 金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 Coke and Coking Coal:Position l