【国泰期货】Morning Insight: August 7, 2025-250807（8页）.pdf

1、金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 Morning Insight:August 7,2025 Linlin Gao Certification：Z0002332 Yu Chen Wu(Contact)Certification：F03133175 Main Body Commodity Market Insight：Soybean oil:Expectations of a balance sheet improvement and relatively low valuation are driving soybean oil prices higher.Under th

2、e influence of strong global demand for biodiesel,the overall vegetable oil sector remains firm,and among the four major edible oils,soybean oil is currently relatively undervalued.Although domestic soybean oil inventories are still building up,the market expects this accumulation phase to be nearin

3、g its end.In addition,from September to December,exports of soybean oil by domestic firms and uncertainties surrounding the procurement of new crop U.S.soybeans are expected to significantly improve the domestic soybean oil balance sheet.These two major factors have supported the soybean oil Septemb

4、er futures contract in reaching a 23-month high.Soybean oil is expected to remain strong until its price differential with other oils fully reflects the improved balance sheet outlook.It is recommended to continue watching for opportunities to go long on soybean oil on dips.Copper:Prices are support

5、ed,with fundamentals expected to play a larger role in future price movements.Although macro-level uncertainty may persist,coppers pricing logic is shifting toward being fundamentally driven as the impact of logistical factors fades.On the supply side,copper concentrate remains tight,and smelters ar

6、e experiencing significant losses.The price spread between refined and scrap copper has narrowed below the breakeven point,with August August 7 7,2025,2025 F Financial Derivativesinancial Derivatives GUOTAI JUNAN FUTURES 金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 imports remaining unprofitable,indicating a tight su