IATA：新冠病毒疫情对全球航空旅行行业初步影响报告（英文版）(14页).pdf

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1、Economics COVID-19 Initial impact* assessment of the novel Coronavirus IATA Economics 1 20thFebruary 2020 * This is a preliminary scenario. It is likely to change as the situation evolves and evidence builds. Economics Previous disease outbreaks have peaked after 1-3 months and recovered pre-outbrea

2、k levels in 6-7 months Source: IATA Economics using data from IATA Statistics 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 -3-2-10123456789101112 Impact of past disease outbreaks on aviation Index (crisis month=100) Months before and after the start of the crisis SARS (2003) Asia Pacific Airlines RPKs Avi

3、an Flu (2013) Asia Pacific Airlines RPKs MERS Flu (2015) RPKs to, from and within South Korea Avian Flu (2005) RPKs to, from and within South-East Asia SARS (2003) North American Airlines RPKs SARS (2003) China Domestic Market RPKs Economics 2003 SARS Outbreak: RPKs declined by 5.1% 0 500 1,000 1,50

4、0 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 199019921994199619982000200220042006200820102012201420162018 Asia-Pacific Airlines Passenger Kilometers flown (RPKs) Billions of passenger kilometers flown 20-year trend: CAGR 7.4% SARS caused the only annual decline in Asia-Pacific traffic in almost two decades Source: IAT

5、A Economics using data from IATA Statistics Economics SARS experience may underestimate todays impact because Chinas economic size is now much greater Source: IATA Economics using data from the IMF WEO, UN, WTTC 4% 5% 10% 5% 16% 13% 39% 18% Share in World Economy Share in Trade (Exports + Imports)Sh

6、are in ManufacturingShare in Travel& Tourism Chinas Contribution to World Economy 20022018 Economics Since SARS China and other Asia Pacific airlines share in worldwide RPKs have risen from 27% to 35% 3% 10% 24% 25% 36% 22% 26% 27% 6% 11% 5%5% 20022019 Regional Share of RPKs (% of worldwide RPKs) As