【国泰期货】Morning Insight: July 29, 2025-250729（7页）.pdf

1、金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 Morning Insight:July 29,2025 Linlin Gao Certification：Z0002332 Yu Chen Wu(Contact)Certification：F03133175 Main Body Commodity Market Insight：Glass:Short-term cautious about aggressive shorting,but the downward adjustment is not yet over.The previous rebound was driven by e

2、xpectations around anti-involution and anti-deflation policies as well as seasonal demand,essentially caused by overcrowded shorts in the futures market leading to collective short covering and a short squeeze.However,currently the market is under pressure from weak basis,delivery factors,and high i

3、nventory levels,causing prices to pull back.Although the downside from the current low is limited,the impact of anti-involution policy on the float glass industry is still limited and further policy clarity is needed.It is clear that volatility continues to converge,indicating ongoing roll-over of t

4、he September contract.With the main contract reducing positions and volatility compressing,after several days of sharp declines,the glass market is likely to experience a resistant declinedownward adjustment with some price support.On the positive side,the overall anti-involution policy support for

5、commodities has not been disproven,the peak glass season is approaching,and producer inventories have noticeably decreased.On the negative side,real estate demand downstream has not improved significantly despite the July price rise,the glass industry itself has not seen large-scale production cuts,

6、and the weak basis caused by Julys price surge means the August and September contracts could face delivery pressures.Overall,given the background of volatility convergence,aggressive shorting is unnecessary,but the adjustment phase may not be finished.July July 2 29 9,2025,2025 F Financial Derivati