【国泰期货】Morning Insight: July 22, 2025-250722（8页）.pdf

1、金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 Morning Insight:July 22,2025 Linlin Gao Certification：Z0002332 Yu Chen Wu(Contact)Certification：F03133175 Main Body Commodity Market Insight：Glass:Slight near-term strength,but valuations are high.Amid expectations for anti-deflation and anti-overcompetition policies,a red

2、uction in short positions has driven a market rebound,with spot sales improving significantly alongside futures gains.Manufacturers inventories have declined for three consecutive weeks,and producers in low-price regions have started raising prices.However,the market must stay clear-headed.Currently

3、,the January futures contract is trading at a premium of nearly 20%over low-priced glass in Hubei,and the September contract is about 10%above spot prices in low-priced regions.Historically,when basis spreads reach this level,market pullbacks tend to occur.Its important to note that during this rebo

4、und,basis and calendar spreads have weakened,yet the forward curve continues to steepen.For the strong trend to continue,either spot prices must surge to reverse the contango structure,or futures prices must fall to restore the basis.As we approach August,roll-forward and delivery logic under weak b

5、asis conditions may begin to favor the short side.In summary,while the short-term outlook leans slightly bullish,high valuations warrant caution.Going forward,uncertainties include potential policies defining outdated capacity elimination standards and the strength of peak season expectations.The ma

6、rket dynamic appears to be driven by expectations on the way up and delivery pressure on the way down.July July 2 22 2,2025,2025 F Financial Derivativesinancial Derivatives GUOTAI JUNAN FUTURES 金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 Chart 1：Market Snapshot Source：iFind,GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Research Open Interest