【国泰期货】Morning Insight: July 17, 2025-250717（9页）.pdf

1、金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 Morning Insight:July 17,2025 Linlin Gao Certification：Z0002332 Yu Chen Wu(Contact)Certification：F03133175 Main Body Commodity Market Insight：Polysilicon:Strengthening policy expectations,intensified market speculation.Yesterday,market news suggested that the industrys aver

2、age full-cost reference price for polysilicon was 43,800 yuan/ton.In the afternoon,there were also reports of price increases in the wafer segment,which provided a bullish catalyst for polysilicon futures.From an industry chain perspective,this round of price increases in the polysilicon segment has

3、 begun to transmit downstream,with prices for wafers and cells both seeing upward movement.Module prices,however,remain in a state of negotiation,as end-use power station buyers show limited acceptance of price hikes.In terms of supply and demand,polysilicon fundamentals show a pattern of increasing

4、 supply and weakening demand,putting some pressure on the balance.However,short-term upstream price hikes have led to more active downstream procurement,partially driven by inventory restocking.At present,the market is placing more weight on policy expectations rather than fundamentals.As sentiment

5、continues to heat up,polysilicon futures prices may continue to set new highs.In the short term,speculative trading is quite active,and multiple disruptive factors are in play.Caution is advised when holding positions.July July 1 17 7,2025,2025 F Financial Derivativesinancial Derivatives GUOTAI JUNA

6、N FUTURES 金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 Styrene:Benzene sees both supply and demand increase,while styrene experiences rising supply and falling demandprofit margin compression remains the dominant theme for now.Currently,styrene is in a state of high output,high profit,and high inventory,and the strat