【国泰期货】Morning Insight: July 7, 2025-250707（10页）.pdf

1、金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 Morning Insight:July 7,2025 Linlin Gao Certification：Z0002332 Yu Chen Wu(Contact)Certification：F03133175 Main Body Commodity Market Insight：Synthetic Rubber:Synthetic rubber remains weak in the short term,though the sharp drop during the night session has narrowed the down

2、side potential.In the medium term,fundamental pressures are gradually increasing.In the short term,valuation support comes from two areas.First,recent butadiene arrivals have been limited,offering some rigid demand support around 8,500/ton.Second,the NR-BR price spread widened during Fridays night s

3、ession,which is slowly strengthening valuation support for butadiene rubber.However,the medium-term trend remains under pressure because the fundamentals across the synthetic rubber supply chain are still weak.Both butadiene and BR supply are expected to remain high in the third quarter,both year-on

4、-year and month-on-month.In a context where supply growth outpaces demand growth,inventory pressure may further limit the upside for BR prices.Overall,while chasing the downside should be approached with caution in the short term,the broader strategy should treat the market as range-bound,favoring s

5、hort positions at higher levels.Live hogs:Short-term fundamentals show little tension,while sentiment in the longer term has turned stronger.In early to mid-July,group farm hog slaughter volumes have slightly declined,while volumes from individually raised and contract-fattened hogs are gradually in

6、creasing.July July 7 7,2025,2025 F Financial Derivativesinancial Derivatives GUOTAI JUNAN FUTURES 金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 However,the pressure from concentrated selling by smallholders and secondary fatteners remains limited.Demand is relatively stable,and spot prices are mostly fluctuating at hi