【国泰期货】Morning Insight: July 2, 2025-250702（8页）.pdf

1、金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 Morning Insight:July 2,2025 Linlin Gao Certification：Z0002332 Yu Chen Wu(Contact)Certification：F03133175 Main Body Commodity Market Insight：Caustic Soda:Spot Price Decline Not Yet Over,But Watch for Chlorine Impact Spot prices for caustic soda continue to decline,mainly du

2、e to ongoing reductions in procurement prices from alumina producers in Shandong.With expectations of lower prices,downstream buyers and traders have significantly reduced restocking activity,intensifying negative market feedback.At the same time,rapid spot price drops have increased pressure on lon

3、g positions in near-month futures,and the logic of near-month premium compensation is no longer sufficient to support the market.However,the bearish momentum has shown clear signs of slowing recently.The key reason is the faster-than-expected decline in liquid chlorine prices.This raises the possibi

4、lity that caustic soda producers may be forced to cut output due to liquid chlorine-related disruptions.On the fundamentals,caustic soda maintenance-related capacity reductions in July are notably smaller than in June,with most outages occurring in Northwest and East China.Plants in Shandong that we

5、re under maintenance earlier are gradually resuming operations.Additionally,new capacity additions in JuneJuly may total as much as 1.1 million tonnes,indicating continued supply-side pressure.On the demand side,non-alumina demand remains weak,and alumina producers hold relatively high caustic soda

6、inventories.However,export demand offers some support,with buyers showing stronger willingness to restock at low prices.On the cost side,although electricity prices are J July uly 2 2,2025,2025 F Financial Derivativesinancial Derivatives GUOTAI JUNAN FUTURES 金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 still falling