【国泰期货】Morning Insight: June 30, 2025-250630（9页）.pdf

1、金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 Morning Insight:June 30,2025 Linlin Gao Certification：Z0002332 Yu Chen Wu(Contact)Certification：F03133175 Main Body Commodity Market Insight：Copper:Price Rises Driven by Temporary Alignment of Micro and Macro Factors Copper prices have been rising,primarily due to a tempor

2、ary convergence of micro and macro drivers.On the micro side,spot copper remains tight,with low domestic inventories and a rapid drawdown in LME stocks,keeping spot prices in sustained contango.Overseas factors are having a stronger impact on prices:the U.S.economy is showing signs of bottoming,and

3、expectations of copper tariffs under a potential Trump administration have significantly boosted COMEX copper prices.The price spread between COMEX and LME copper has widened to around$1,400/ton,attracting global shipments toward the U.S.This has led to falling LME inventories and high spot premiums

4、 on the 03 spread.With LME prices stronger than domestic prices,Chinese exporters are seeing profits from sending shipments to bonded zones or LME warehouses,resulting in a drawdown of domestic commercial inventories.On the macro front,easing tensions in the Middle East and rising expectations of a

5、Fed rate cut have improved market risk sentiment.In terms of trading strategy,given the temporary alignment of macro and micro fundamentals,copper prices are expected to remain firm.For spread trading,the export of some domestic supply may support domesticoverseas arbitrage(short domestic,long overs

6、eas).At the same time,with domestic inventories still low and drawing down,the Shanghai copper June June 3030,2025,2025 F Financial Derivativesinancial Derivatives GUOTAI JUNAN FUTURES 金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 calendar spread(long near-term,short far-term)remains a favorable strategy.Glass:Short-T