【国泰期货】Morning Insight: June 25, 2025-250625（10页）.pdf

1、金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 Morning Insight:June 25,2025 Linlin Gao Certification：Z0002332 Yu Chen Wu(Contact)Certification：F03133175 Main Body Commodity Market Insight：Crude Oil:Avoid Chasing the Dip,Potential for Rebound Remains Last night,oil prices continued to weaken following the sharp decline

2、of the previous session.We have revised our view slightly from yesterday and now maintain a more optimistic outlook for Q3:do not chase the downside.After a significant retracement of geopolitical risk premiums in June,there is still a chance for a final rebound in early to mid-Q3.Brent and WTI may

3、see one last opportunity to break above$80/barrel,while SC futures could potentially challenge 580 yuan/ton.The primary logic remains driven by inventory drawdowns and relatively low stock levels,supported by various supply-demand dynamics.However,in the medium to long term,oil prices still face dow

4、nward pressure due to increasing supply and weakening demand.If there are no further escalations in geopolitical tensions,the downward pressure could intensify in H2.Brent and WTI may fall below previous lows,potentially testing$50/barrel,while SC futures may test 420 yuan/ton.Strategy wise,consider

5、 buying on dips in the short term,with cautious optimism for a final upward leg.Risks:Pay close attention to global economic volatility under rising tariffs,geopolitical shocks,and possible changes to the OPEC+production plan.Timing of entry and exit will be critical.Lithium Carbonate:Ongoing Wareho

6、use Warrant Drawdown,Lithium Prices Rebound from Lows June June 2 25 5,2025,2025 F Financial Derivativesinancial Derivatives GUOTAI JUNAN FUTURES 金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 Lithium carbonate futures saw a sharp rebound with significant position reduction during the session.The main SEP 2025 contract