【国泰期货】Morning Insight: June 23, 2025-250623（9页）.pdf

1、金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 Morning Insight:June 23,2025 Linlin Gao Certification：Z0002332 Yu Chen Wu(Contact)Certification：F03133175 Main Body Commodity Market Insight：PVC:Short-Term Fluctuations,Trend Still Under Pressure Fundamentally,integrated chlor-alkali operations in Northwest China remain pr

2、ofitable,and the high output and high inventory structure of PVC is difficult to ease.As a result,the market continues to short chlor-alkali margins.In the short term,caustic soda is facing more pressure,with spot prices under strain.In contrast,PVC is supported by rising ethylene-based production c

3、osts,prompting some market participants to take long PVC/short caustic soda positions.The impact of profit-taking on this position should be monitored in the coming period.High production levels are unlikely to change in the short term:PVC plant maintenance is below 2023 levels,and high output persi

4、sts.On one hand,chlor-alkali costs have declined;on the other,the chlor-alkali chain continues to“use alkali to subsidize chlorine,”making large-scale PVC production cuts difficult despite losses.Additionally,significant new capacity is expected to be added,especially in JuneJuly,with approximately

5、1.1 million tons coming online.The high-output situation is unlikely to ease soon.High inventory pressure remains,and export demand provides only temporary relief:In 2025,global competition in PVC exports is set to intensify.Although India has postponed the implementation of its BIS PVC import polic

6、y to December 24,2025,anti-dumping measures are likely to be announced and implemented in early July,creating uncertainty around the sustainability of PVC exports.On the domestic side,downstream PVC June June 2 23 3,2025,2025 F Financial Derivativesinancial Derivatives GUOTAI JUNAN FUTURES 金融衍生品研究 请