【国泰期货】Morning Insight: July 14, 2025-250714（8页）.pdf

1、金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 Morning Insight:July 14,2025 Linlin Gao Certification：Z0002332 Yu Chen Wu(Contact)Certification：F03133175 Main Body Commodity Market Insight：Stock Index Futures:In a bullish trend,it is essential to dynamically track new fundamental developments.Last week,the market contin

2、ued its upward movement,driven primarily by growing expectations for supply-side reform.This was further reinforced by speculative discussions around the potential restart of shantytown renovation programs,resulting in a synchronized rise in both cyclical and growth sectors.The current policy focus

3、on supply-side support is conducive to the recovery of price indicators.Meanwhile,price movements are aligned with corporate earnings performance,suggesting an improving outlook for stock market profitability.Additionally,external risks such as trade friction have not escalated,and U.S.equities cont

4、inue to reach new highscontributing to sustained bullish sentiment in the market.Looking ahead,although the index is at relatively elevated levels,with market risk appetite remaining strong and no unexpected bearish catalysts emerging,the bullish structure of the market is likely to persist.We belie

5、ve that a reversal in trend would likely be triggered by either intensified external shocks or a domestic policy shift toward structural adjustmentboth of which are difficult to predict in advance and require ongoing observation.Starting this week,domestic economic data will gradually be released.If

6、 the data continues to exceed expectations,the markets anticipation for further easing may cool,while expectations for accelerated structural July July 1 14 4,2025,2025 F Financial Derivativesinancial Derivatives GUOTAI JUNAN FUTURES 金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 reform could gain momentum.At the same