【国泰期货】Morning Insight: June 13, 2025-250613（8页）.pdf

1、金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 Morning Insight:June 13,2025 Linlin Gao Certification：Z0002332 Yu Chen Wu(Contact)Certification：F03133175 Main Body Commodity Market Insight：Soda Ash:Soda ash remains in a weak trend.Recently,production units that had previously cut output in May have gradually resumed ope

2、rations,while on the demand side,continued weakness in the glass industry has dampened procurement enthusiasm,leading to a gradual increase in soda ash inventories.As stock levels climb,market pressure has intensified,prompting some producersparticularly key deliverable-grade producersto lower price

3、s,which in turn has had a greater impact on the futures market.In terms of deliveries,warehouse receipts and potential warehouse receipts have also been steadily rising in recent weeks.On the trading front,the previously emphasized strategy of holding physical goods while increasing short hedging on

4、 the board continues to gain traction.Looking ahead,attention should be paid to current valuation levels on the futures side,which are approaching relatively low territory after recent declines.However,the core pricing driver of the soda ash market remains the trend in the glass industry.Given the p

5、ersistent weakness in glass,downstream buyers have lower price expectations for soda ash,creating pressure on warehouse receipt digestion.Without an improvement in the glass market,it is unlikely that soda ash prices will rebound independently.Moreover,the limited production cuts from soda ash produ

6、cers have contributed to the sustained weakness.Overall,the soda ash market is expected to remain soft in the short term,and a reversal in trend likely depends on a recovery in the June June 1 13 3,2025,2025 F Financial Derivativesinancial Derivatives GUOTAI JUNAN FUTURES 金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2