【国泰期货】Morning Insight: June 10, 2025-250610（9页）.pdf

1、金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 Morning Insight:June 10,2025 Linlin Gao Certification：Z0002332 Yu Chen Wu(Contact)Certification：F03133175 Main Body Commodity Market Insight：Cast Aluminum Alloy:Opened high on listing but short-term fundamentals are weak.Attention should be paid to the calendar spread arbi

2、trage and long-AD/short-AL positions.On the first day of listing,all contracts are highly likely to open high.The exchanges announced listing price is 18,365 yuan/ton,while the Baotai price on June 9 was 19,400 yuan/ton.Considering that some registered brands are discounted relative to the Baotai pr

3、ice,a reasonable valuation for deliverable products in November 2025 is between 19,455 and 19,860 yuan/ton.Therefore,the listing price is significantly low,and during the opening call auction on the first day,a 68%increase is possible.If trading sentiment is exuberant,even higher prices may be reach

4、ed.However,the fundamentals of cast aluminum alloy are weak,and it is expected that prices will most likely open high and then fall in the early stage of listing.The monthly spread and intercommodity ADC12A00 price spread may follow seasonal patternsweakening in the off-season and strengthening in t

5、he peak season.Currently,both still have room to decline,though the risk-return ratio may be less favorable.It is recommended to monitor calendar spread arbitrage opportunities around mid-year and long-AD/short-AL positions,aiming to realize profits in the third quarter.Pulp:News-driven rally with l

6、imited upside expected June June 1010,2025,2025 F Financial Derivativesinancial Derivatives GUOTAI JUNAN FUTURES 金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 To cope with the weak market situation,Mets Fibre,a subsidiary of Mets Group,is preparing to temporarily shut down its Joutseno NBSK pulp mill.According to the