【国泰期货】Morning Insight: July 1, 2025-250701（9页）.pdf

1、金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 Morning Insight:July 1,2025 Linlin Gao Certification：Z0002332 Yu Chen Wu(Contact)Certification：F03133175 Main Body Commodity Market Insight：US Soybeans:Planted Area Below Expectations,but Quarterly Stocks Above Forecast According to the latest report,the planted area figur

2、es are as follows:corn at 95.2 million acres(market expected 95.35 million;previous year 90.59 million),soybeans at 83.38 million acres(market expected 83.65 million;previous year 87.05 million),and wheat at 45.48 million acres(market expected 45.43 million;previous year 46.07 million).As of June 1,

3、total US soybean stocks stood at 1.008 billion bushels(market expected 980 million;previous year 970 million bushels).Soybean stocks came in higher than expected,which is slightly bearish for near-month contracts.However,the planted area for soybeans was slightly below expectations,which is bullish

4、for deferred contracts.Corn acreage was also lower than expected.With soybean acreage now largely set,market attention will shift to weather conditions in key growing regions during July and August.Coking Coal:The recent synchronized rise in spot and futures prices has largely stemmed from the conti

5、nued amplification of earlier“supply shortage”sentiment.Given that hot metal output remains high,downstream buyers have shown some restocking interest in cost-effective,scarce coal types.With thermal coal prices rebounding,demand for coal types like lean coal and semi-lean coal has also improved.J J

6、uly 1,2025uly 1,2025 F Financial Derivativesinancial Derivatives GUOTAI JUNAN FUTURES 金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 However,market expectations regarding longer-term production capacity have not changed during this cycle.In other words,once prices rise,the risk of production resumption becomes a key co