【国泰期货】Morning Insight: June 12, 2025-250612（8页）.pdf

1、金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 Morning Insight:June 12,2025 Linlin Gao Certification：Z0002332 Yu Chen Wu(Contact)Certification：F03133175 Main Body Commodity Market Insight：Crude Oil:Crude oil prices have broken out sharply to the upside,with both domestic and international markets strengthening signific

2、antlyaligning with our expectations since early May.Several bullish factors we previously highlighted have recently come into play.These include actual OPEC+production increases falling short of market expectations,continued contraction in Iranian crude supply under U.S.sanctions,low inventory level

3、s across major regions(excluding floating storage),slowing growth in U.S.shale oil output,and improving sentiment surrounding U.S.-China trade relations.Additionally,tensions in the Middle East have escalated rapidly,with reports suggesting possible Israeli strikes on Iran and fading prospects for U

4、.S.-Iran negotiationsfurther amplifying geopolitical risk premiums in oil markets.Despite this strong near-term rally,crude oil remains under downward pressure over the medium to long term due to supply growth outpacing demand.Brent crude may still test the$50 per barrel level later this year.Strate

5、gically,long positions and calendar spreads(long near-month,short far-month)can be held and considered for additional accumulation on pullbacks.Coking Coal and Coke:The divergence between futures and spot prices in the coking coal and coke markets continues,with weak fundamentals still exerting down

6、ward pressure on the futures market.Whether a price rebound signal will emerge largely depends on whether the market revises its June June 1 12 2,2025,2025 F Financial Derivativesinancial Derivatives GUOTAI JUNAN FUTURES 金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 expectations of a loose supply-demand balance going