【国泰期货】Morning Insight: July 25, 2025-250725（9页）.pdf

1、金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 Morning Insight:July 25,2025 Linlin Gao Certification：Z0002332 Yu Chen Wu(Contact)Certification：F03133175 Main Body Commodity Market Insight：Olefins:Supported by the overall bullish sentiment in the commodities market,the olefins sector has experienced a catch-up rally.Sin

2、ce 2025,the olefins segment has faced profit compression due to expectations of significant new capacity additions.Currently,margins have seen some recovery,and with relatively low oil and coal prices,the olefins sector as a whole is operating profitably.Most olefin facilities are part of the dual-o

3、il system.Under the broader refining strategy of shutting old units and starting new ones and reducing oil,increasing chemicals,the volume of phased-out old olefin units is still smaller than the new capacity being added.The period from 2025 to 2027 remains a cycle of capacity expansion for olefins,

4、with overall capacity growth in 2026 expected to reach 10%.Therefore,while short-term margins are improving,mid-to long-term profitability remains under pressure.Ferrous Sector:Coking Coal and Coke Remain Firm;Steel and Iron Ore Valuations Fair Short-term view(13 weeks):Steel prices are likely to os

5、cillate at high levels,iron ore faces pressure,while coking coal remains strong.Logic:Coking coal supply is expected to shrink,and frequent policy stimulus supports the market.Spot liquidity is tight due to heavy July July 2 25 5,2025,2025 F Financial Derivativesinancial Derivatives GUOTAI JUNAN FUT

6、URES 金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 participation from traders in cash-and-carry arbitrage.With steel mill profits expanding,restocking demand for coking coal has increased.Iron ore supply is recovering steadily;anti-involution policies do not directly impact iron ore,and the absolute price(around$105/t