【国泰期货】Morning Insight: June 4, 2025-250604（10页）.pdf

1、金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 Morning Insight:June 4,2025 Linlin Gao Certification：Z0002332 Yu Chen Wu(Contact)Certification：F03133175 Main Body Commodity Market Insight：Synthetic Rubber:In the short term,synthetic rubber has seen a mild rebound from low static valuations,but medium-term fundamentals r

2、emain under pressure.Currently,butadiene prices are holding within the 9,0009,300 yuan/ton range,providing cost support for PBR(polybutadiene rubber),which finds additional support around 10,70010,800 yuan/ton from a valuation perspective.As long as butadiene does not show further signs of decline,m

3、arket sentiment has stabilized somewhat,leading to a modest recovery in futures prices.However,in the medium term,the main concern lies in weak demand across the rubber sector.With ample supply in both natural and synthetic rubber markets,the weak demand continues to drive bearish fundamentals,keepi

4、ng overall trends under pressure.Rapeseed Meal:Rapeseed meal prices remain under pressure,primarily due to the weakness in soybean meal spot prices.With a surge in soybean imports leading to significantly higher domestic crushing activity,soybean meal has entered an inventory accumulation phase.This

5、 supply pressure continues to push spot prices lower,narrowing the price spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal,further squeezing rapeseed meal demand.Concerns are rising that rapeseed meal demand may soon be limited to aquaculture use only.Additionally,the market is closely watching developm

6、ents in ChinaCanada trade relations.Given the already well-priced-in expectation of tighter rapeseed meal supply from June to September(as reflected in the price June June 4 4,2025,2025 F Financial Derivativesinancial Derivatives GUOTAI JUNAN FUTURES 金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 spread between the Sep