【国泰期货】Morning Insight: June 5, 2025-250605（8页）.pdf

1、金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 Morning Insight:June 5,2025 Linlin Gao Certification：Z0002332 Yu Chen Wu(Contact)Certification：F03133175 Main Body Commodity Market Insight：Soda Ash:Previously undervalued;now more likely to see a choppy market.Yesterday,soda ash rebounded sharply from a low level.The spot

2、 market remained calm,with the rebound more related to unconfirmed rumors on the cost side.Soda ash pricing has been repeatedly affected by the pressure from warehouse receipts.Due to ongoing weakness in the glass sector,the pressure of taking delivery of soda ash warehouse receipts remains heavy.Fu

3、tures prices are weak,but spot market prices are relatively stable.The soda ash basis has continued to strengthen,which favors long spot and short futures positions,with warehouse receipts remaining at high levels.With the recent continuous decline in soda ash prices,prices are getting closer to the

4、 cash cost of low-cost production units.Further expansion of long spot and short futures positionstargeting the low-priced spot marketcreates a mismatch in the risk-reward ratio of the basis trade,leading to intensified price volatility.In the absence of a significant recovery in the real estate mar

5、ket and with the glass market still weak,the delivery pressure caused by basis trading in soda ash will likely persist,making it difficult for the market to show a trend reversal.However,the low valuation has also made the performance of soda ash at low prices increasingly unstable.In June,spot supp

6、ly of soda ash is expected to be looser than in May,and demand may remain weak,but the June June 5 5,2025,2025 F Financial Derivativesinancial Derivatives GUOTAI JUNAN FUTURES 金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 downside is limited due to the low valuation.A weak and volatile market is more probable.Industri