【国泰期货】Morning Insight: June 19, 2025-250619（10页）.pdf

1、金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 Morning Insight:June 19,2025 Linlin Gao Certification：Z0002332 Yu Chen Wu(Contact)Certification：F03133175 Main Body Commodity Market Insight：Rapeseed Oil:Rapeseed oil futures have surged,driven by the dual impact of rising crude oil prices and bullish expectations from U.S

2、.biodiesel policy.Since last Wednesday,crude oil prices have climbed sharply due to escalating tensions in the Middle East.On Friday night,the U.S.Environmental Protection Agency(EPA)released a preliminary proposal for its 20262027 biodiesel blending mandate,which is expected to significantly boost

3、U.S.soybean oil consumption.This news spurred a sharp rally in CBOT soybean oil,and under the combined influence of both factors,the overall vegetable oil complex has seen sustained gains over the past week.Among the three major oils,rapeseed oil futures have been the strongest performer,setting a s

4、even-month high.This strength is partly due to concerns about reduced domestic rapeseed oil imports in Q3 and the continued rise in Canadian rapeseed prices.However,current rapeseed oil futures prices have already largely priced in expectations of a tighter domestic supply in Q3.On the global front,

5、expectations for a recovery in new rapeseed crop supply remain intact,with new harvests expected to enter the market starting at the end of June.From a fundamental standpoint,rapeseed oil futures lack a sustainable driver for continued price increases.As such,investors should be cautious of potentia

6、l pullbacks if sentiment around crude oil and U.S.biodiesel policy begins to cool.June June 1 19 9,2025,2025 F Financial Derivativesinancial Derivatives GUOTAI JUNAN FUTURES 金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 Fuel Oil and Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil:The impact of geopolitical conflicts and support from peak season