环保行业深度：氢能系列研究二产业链经济性测算与降本展望-220608（46页）.pdf

1、Equity ResearchIndustry ResearchEnvironment Industry Environment Industry Research 1 / 46 东吴证券东吴证券（香港香港） 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 Hydrogen energy research series 2: Industrial economic evaluation and cost reduction outlook Outperform (Maintain) Investment Thesis The strategic position of hyd

2、rogen energy is clear, grasping the rhythm of cost reduction and parity link in the whole industry chain. 1) Strategic Position: As a secondary energy with a wide range of sources and uses, clean and low-carbon, safe and efficient hydrogen energy will help the low-carbon transformation of energy-int

3、ensive industries, making its strategic position clear. 2) Development status: China is the worlds largest hydrogen producer with an annual output of about 33 million tons in 2020, accounting for only 2.7% of the total terminal energy. The industry development is still in the early stage. 3) Plannin

4、g goals: Focus on breaking through technical problems and expand the scale of hydrogen output. By 2025, the amount of HFCV and renewable energy hydrogen output will be about 50,000/100,000-200,000 tons/year, respectively. Production: By-product hydrogen has both low carbon & cost advantages. Green h

5、ydrogen has a large space for long-term cost reduction. Three mainstream hydrogen production paths: 1) Fossil energy production path is mature and has low price. 2) By-product hydrogen has both low carbon & cost advantages. The cost of by-product hydrogen from coke oven gas is 9-15 rmb/kg, and that

6、from chlor-alkali chemical, light hydrocarbon utilization, synthetic ammonia alcohol is 13-22 rmb/kg. 3) The cost of water electrolysis production path is still high, and it will be 30 rmb/kg if the electricity price is 0.4 rmb/kWh, of which electricity cost accounts for more than 70%. The cost of g